As American votes and waits, this Election day 2024, the conversation invariably drifts to polls and all the various ways to gauge voter responses. Prior to the arrival of George Gallup and his Gallup Poll, getting a picture of the average American voter ran the gamut. In 1936, before George Gallup unveiled his method of gauging trends, getting voter responses took guesswork; much of it hit-or-miss.
The average City Phone book provided clues, though hardly reliable. It was felt that making random calls to those names in the phone book would yield substantial results. The reason was simple – 1936, we were just coming out of a Depression and not that many people had telephones. Those who did have phones were judged to be reliable and informed. It was assumed the owner of a telephone was educated and would have no trouble wading through a ballot.
It left out an entire chunk of the voting population and subsequently, the polls were often wrong.
Although no polls are 100% accurate, the method George Gallup used was at least more reliable and had a better chance at being an accurate reflection of the American voter than any poll that was taken before, and many times since.
Although methods of gauging voters responses are vastly different now than they were in 1952, there is still a margin of error inherent with all of them.
This lecture, given at Illinois University on November 5, 1952 (the day after the 1952 Presidential election) is a fascinating look at what the average American was thinking at the time. There is a Q&A session during the last roughly third and Gallup is given some tough questions to answer.
The 1952 Presidential election was considered a tough one to call – not solely because Stevenson (a comparative newcomer at the time) was running against Eisenhower (who had instant recognition based on his service during the War), but because both candidates were evenly matched as far as intelligence and communication skills were concerned. Many voters thought it was a tossup; we would be in good hands no matter how it went. Certainly can’t say that now . . .
Here is George Gallup’s lecture on Political polls and Presidential Elections from November 5, 1952.
